AST SpaceMobile sees New Glenn setback delaying initial commercial service into 2027
TAMPA, Fla. - AST SpaceMobile expects Blue Origin's recent launchpad explosion will delay its direct-to-smartphone constellation by three to six months, investment bank William Blair said in an equity research note, pushing initial commercial services into the first half of 2027.
William Blair said Scott Wisniewski, AST SpaceMobile's chief strategy officer, made the estimate June 2 during the bank's annual growth stock conference in Chicago.
Before the loss of a New Glenn rocket in a static-fire test May 28, AST SpaceMobile had aimed to start early services at the end of 2026 with at least 45 satellites in low Earth orbit, helping anchor customers such as AT&T and Verizon in the United States plug terrestrial service gaps.
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The Texas-based venture had retained that goal even after the loss of its seventh BlueBird satellite on a New Glenn launch April 19.
While AST SpaceMobile was planning to rely heavily on New Glenn, Wisniewski reaffirmed "it has a handful of launches over the remainder of the year with launch providers other than Blue Origin," William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma wrote.
Alongside contracts with SpaceX, Wisniewski said last month that the company has "a handful of SpaceX-equivalent launches," with United Launch Alliance's Vulcan singled out as a viable option.
In addition to New Glenn, previous BlueBirds have flown with SpaceX's Falcon 9 and India's LVM3.
Earlier this year, AST SpaceMobile disclosed it had signed an agreement with a new heavy launch vehicle to be on standby in its manifest, without providing details.
"Our strategy has always been to have many launch providers, and I would put ULA in that category," Wisniewski said during AST SpaceMobile's most recent earnings call May 11.
"We have been developing other heavy launch providers for some time, and we will have more updates as appropriate. But right now, we plan to use Blue Origin and SpaceX and equivalents to the max."
AST SpaceMobile referred SpaceNews to a statement it released soon after the launchpad incident last week, stating that none of the missions planned for the next few months are scheduled with Blue Origin.
"Our satellites are designed to be launcher-agnostic, and we have agreements in place with multiple launch providers, giving us flexibility across our launch program," the operator said.
Dave Limp, Blue Origin's CEO, said June 1 that damage to the pad in Cape Canaveral, Florida, is not as bad as feared and New Glenn could return to flight before the end of the year.
"That said, we view a return to service from this specific pad as unlikely in the near term," DiPalma wrote in the research note, "and expect Blue Origin may need to rely on third-party launch infrastructure for upcoming missions."
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